Wednesday, November 9, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Week 10, 2011-12)


The early spread on this game is Chiefs (-3). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 9, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*My* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Picks Only)
Indianapolis Colts 7-2
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-2

Key Injuries
T Eben Britton, S Courtney Greene, WR Mike Sims-Walker, Peyton Manning (Out), TE Dallas Clark (Out), RB Joseph Addai

Keys to the Game
  • Can the Colts contain Maurice Jones-Drew?
  • How well can the Jaguars contain Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis?
  • What is the mentality of the Colts’ locker room?
  • The Jaguars have had two weeks of preparation and rest
  • Which team will avoid costly turnovers?

Summary
The Indianapolis Colts have a legitimate chance of going 0-16 if they can’t defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. The Jaguars don’t have the offense to pull away in this game. They have the defensive ends that could pressure Blaine Gabbert into some crucial mistakes.

The Colts will probably have to win a game before I pick them. The problem with this game is that the Colts have the NFL’s 31st-ranked run defense. They surrender over 146 rushing yards per game. The combination of the Jaguars’ stingy defense and Maurice Jones-Drew could mean trouble for the Colts.

They’ve already lost home games to the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns. No reason for me to think they’d beat a Jaguars team with two weeks of preparation. The Colts were also dominated by the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans. The Colts also have over one dozen injuries to account for.

I’ve got to side with the Jaguars.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Straight: Jacksonville Jaguars 16, Indianapolis Colts 10

Stat sources:

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