Wednesday, November 30, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 13, 2011-12)


The early spread on this game is Chargers (-1.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 30, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*My* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Picks Only)
San Diego Chargers 10-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 8-3

Key Injuries
WR Malcom Floyd, T Marcus McNeil (Out), DL Luis Castillo (Out), G Louis Vasquez, G Tyronne Green, DE Matt Roth

Keys to the Game
  • How will the Jaguars respond to the firing of Jack Del Rio?
  • Can the Chargers contain Maurice Jones-Drew?
  • The Chargers have lost five consecutive games.
  • The Jaguars have already pulled off one Monday Night upset over the Baltimore Ravens this season.
  • The Chargers defeated the Jaguars in 2010, 38-13. This was in San Diego.
  • Can the Chargers avoid turnovers and special team miscues?
  • Can the Jaguars score enough points with Blaine Gabbert?
  • How well will the Chargers offensive line keep up with all their injuries?

Summary
The Jaguars recently fired Jack Del Rio after nine seasons. I don’t think this will have much impact on them because they still have their defensive coordinator, who was promoted to head coach. The offense couldn’t get much worse with or without Del Rio.

While I’m 10-1 with picking Chargers games (straight pick ‘em), this is a very difficult game for me to decide on. The one part of me suggests that the Chargers are due for a victory and they have far too much offensive firepower and overall talent to lose to the Jaguars. The other part of me thinks that the Jaguars’ defense will keep this close heading into the fourth quarter. The Chargers find ways to lose at that point.

I’m going with a mild upset here. The Jaguars have an 11-point differential in turnover ratio (+1 to -10). The Chargers (-10) is third-worst in NFL. This is a game I’d recommend staying away from though because of the uncertainty with the Jaguars and their coaching staff. 

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Straight: Jacksonville Jaguars 16, San Diego Chargers 13

Stat sources:

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