Thursday, November 3, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: New York Giants at New England Patriots (Week 9, 2011-12)


The New England Patriots are looking to recover from a Week 8 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’ve basically been unbeatable since 2006 at Gillette Stadium. Eli Manning considers himself in the class of Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s. Will he deliver?

The early spread on this game is Patriots (-8.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 3, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*MY* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
New England Patriots 5-2
New York Giants 3-4

Key Injuries
DE Shaun Ellis, WR Julian Edelman (Disciplinary), DE Osi Umenyiora, CB Prince Amukamara, WR Hakeem Nicks, C David Baas, RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Out), DT Jimmy Kennedy (Suspension), CB Justin Tyron (IR)

Keys to the Game
  • Can the Giants run the football on the Patriots’ defense?
  • What is the health of Hakeem Nicks?
  • Will Eli Manning avoid interceptions?
  • The New England Patriots haven’t lost a regular-season home game under Tom Brady since 2006.
  • Can the Giants overcome injuries to many of their best players?
  • Giants’ 3rd-down offense vs. Patriots’ 3rd-down defense

Summary
Read my 4th key to the game. Until the Patriots actually do lose a regular-season game at home, I’m not going against them. Do note that they’ve lost two playoff games at Gillette Stadium during that span.

The Giants have won the only game in which they were considered an underdog. What scares me with them is injuries. They could be without their starting running back and No. 1 receiver. They also have a slew of defensive players who are questionable or already listed as out. Keep an eye on those throughout the week.

The Giants really haven’t looked that good this season. They nearly lost to the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals. They did lose to the Seattle Seahawks. I think they’ll keep it within one touchdown.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: New York Giants (+8.5)
Straight: New England Patriots 31, New York Giants 24

Stat sources:

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