Tuesday, November 22, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (Week 12, 2011-12)


The early spread on this game is Cowboys (-7). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 22, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*My* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Picks Only)
Dallas Cowboys 7-3
Miami Dolphins 6-4

Key Injuries
WR Miles Austin, CB Mike Jenkins, S Gerald Sensabaugh, K Dan Carpenter

Keys to the Game
  • Which Tony Romo will show up?
  • Penalties
  • Turnovers
  • Home-field advantage on Thanksgiving
  • Can the Dolphins contain Jason Witten? Dez Bryant?
Summary
The Cowboys will complete their out-of-conference schedule with a Thanksgiving Day meeting with the Miami Dolphins. The Cowboys are 1-2 against AFC East teams. They’ve had close calls against the New England Patriots and New York Jets while they blew out the Buffalo Bills in Dallas. The Dolphins have defeated the Washington Redskins and were competitive with the New York Giants.

After a 0-7 start, the Dolphins have won three consecutive games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Bills and Redskins. Matt Moore has improved in his short time with the offense. Reggie Bush has evolved into one of the team’s leaders and has been a respectable playmaker for them.

One of the biggest differences between these teams is discipline. The Dolphins have the NFL’s fewest total penalties. However, they have a turnover ratio of (-6). The Cowboys are (+6). The Dolphins have also struggled with their third-down offense as they convert approximately 31% of their attempts.

I can’t go against the Cowboys in a Thanksgiving home game. However, it’s hard to give seven points with this team. They’re almost beating the New England Patriots one week. Then, they’re getting trounced by the Philadelphia Eagles. I’ll go with the Cowboys and reluctantly give the points.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Miami Dolphins (+7)
Straight: Dallas Cowboys 24, Miami Dolphins 17

Stat sources:
http://www.betvega.com/nfl-ats-standings/

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