Wednesday, November 2, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (Week 9, 2011-12)

The Kansas City Chiefs will try to extend their winning streak to five games as they host the winless Miami Dolphins. Neither offense has had much success this season and both teams have had to overcome injuries.

The early spread on this game is Chiefs (-4). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 2, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*MY* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
Miami Dolphins 5-2
Kansas City Chiefs 4-3

Key Injuries
C Mike Pouncey, C Richie Incognito, RB Daniel Thomas, CB Vontae Davis, S Jon McGraw

Keys to the Game
  • The Chiefs are playing on a short week after their Monday Night Football game.
  • The fourth quarter.
  • Home-field advantage belongs to the Chiefs.
  • Which offense can make the big play?
  • Turnovers

It’s always tough picking against the Chiefs when they’re playing in Arrowhead. That becomes even more complicated when they’re facing a 0-7 team who is desperate. The Chiefs average 5.1 yards per play while the Dolphins average 5.0. I’d expect a low scoring game here because neither team has many offensive weapons.

There are a few reasons that I like the Chiefs.. The Chiefs have home-field advantage. The Dolphins have the NFL’s second-worst turnover ratio (-8). The Dolphins have the NFL’s worst third-down offense (26%). Additionally, the Dolphins are also 1-6 ATS while the Chiefs are 5-2 ATS. 

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Straight: Kansas City Chiefs 16, Miami Dolphins 10

Stat sources:

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