Tuesday, November 22, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 12, 2011-12)

The early spread on this game is Texans (-3.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 22, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*My* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Picks Only)
Houston Texans 7-3
Jacksonville Jaguars 7-3

Key Injuries
QB Matt Schaub (Out), S Danieal Manning, LB Darryl Sharpton, DE Matt Roth, LB Clint Session, DE Aaron Kampman

Keys to the Game
  • How will Matt Leinart fare in his first start with the Houston Texans?
  • Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Texans’ run defense.
  • The Texans won the first matchup 24-14.
  • Arian Foster and Ben Tate vs. Jaguars’ run defense
  • Turnovers
  • The Texans have had two weeks of rest and preparation.
  • The return of Andre Johnson.

The Texans defeated the Jaguars 24-14 on October 31, 2011. The Texans had 39 rushing attempts for 156 yards in the first meeting. Andre Johnson wasn’t active for this contest. Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert went 10-of-30 for 97 yards and two interceptions against the NFL’s No. 1 ranked defense.

The Jaguars’ offense average four yards per play. That’s easily the worst mark in the NFL. They also have a rookie quarterback who is facing a Texans team that has a (+11) turnover ratio. The Texans will likely rely on Ben Rate and Arian Foster as Matt Leinart is making his first start with the Texans.

The Jaguars are always tough in divisional play. However, their inept offense and expanding injury list will make things complicated here. I think the Texans will win a close game in the teens.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
Straight: Houston Texans 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Stat sources:

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