Wednesday, November 9, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 10, 2011-12)


The early spread on this game is Texans (-3). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 9, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*My* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Picks Only)
Houston Texans 6-3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-4

Key Injuries
WR Andre Johnson, S Danieal Manning, LB Darryl Sharpton, OG Jeremy Zuttah, OT James Lee, DT Gerald McCoy (Out),

Keys to the Game
  • Can the Buccaneers contain Arian Foster and Ben Tate?
  • Will the Buccaneers continue to play better at home?
  • How will the Buccaneers challenge the Texans’ No. 1 Defense?
  • Will the addition of Albert Haynesworth make any difference?
  • Ball-control offense from the Texans?
  • The Texans average nearly 34 minutes of possession per game?

Summary
The Texans are 5-1 ATS when they’re favorites. The Buccaneers are below .500 ATS in concerns to overall, home, away, underdog, and favorite. The Texans have the NFL’s No. 1 defense as they’re surrendering 274 yards per game. They’re currently ranked in the top four on run defense and pass defense.

The Buccaneers find themselves in a do-or-die game with the Texans. At 4-4, they have no room for error as they’re falling behind the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. The problem with losing here is that they have a road game at Lambeau Field next week. At 4-6, they’re essentially dead in the playoff race talks.

The problem for the Buccaneers will be containing Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The Texans have the NFL’s second-ranked run offense as they average over 155 yards per game. The Buccaneers have the NFL’s 26th-ranked run defense as they surrender over 132 yards per game and a 4.9 average per attempt.

That discrepancy and the Texans’ defense is why I’m going with the Texans. This is a young and sloppy Buccaneers team who has taken a step back from the 2010-11 season.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Houston Texans (-3)
Straight: Houston Texans 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Stat sources:

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