Wednesday, November 9, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Week 10, 2011-12)


The early spread on this game is Bears (-2.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 9, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*My* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Picks Only)
Chicago Bears 5-3
Detroit Lions 3-5

Key Injuries
KR/PR/WR Devin Hester, T Gabe Carimi (Doubtful), TE Kellen Davis, DT Nick Fairley, RB Jahvid Best (Doubtful), RB Jerome Harrison (Out),

Keys to the Game
  • The Lions have had two weeks of rest and preparation
  • The Lions’ defensive line versus the Bears’ offensive line
  • Matt Forte versus the Lions’ run defense
  • The Bears’ defense versus Calvin Johnson
  • Can the Bears avoid the big play?
  • Jahvid Best probably won’t play in this matchup.
  • The health of Devin Hester

Summary
The Lions are 3-0-1 ATS away. They’re also 2-0 as underdogs. They’re 2-0 with their divisional record as they have victories against the Minnesota Vikings and an earlier victory over the Bears.

Similar to the first time these teams played, the Lions should have difficulty with containing Matt Forte. The Lions have the NFL’s 28th-ranked run defense as they surrender over 137 yards per game. They also allow 5.2 yards per attempt. However, Mike Martz is a pass-heavy offensive coordinator; how much will he exploit this weakness?

The Bears’ offensive line has played much better since these teams last met on Monday Night Football. With that said, I just don’t have much confidence in that offensive line holding up against the four-man front of the Lions.

I believe the Bears will win if they stop Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew. Those are big “Ifs” though. Easiest way to put it, I’m 50/50 on this game. I think I’ll go with the Lions since they’ve had two weeks and the Bears are coming off a short week after Monday Night.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Straight: Detroit Lions 23, Chicago Bears 17

Stat sources:

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