Wednesday, November 9, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (Week 10, 2011-12)


The early spread on this game is Cowboys (-5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of November 9, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*My* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Picks Only)
Dallas Cowboys 6-2
Buffalo Bills 2-6

Key Injuries
LB Chris Kelsay, DB Aaron Williams, K Rian Lindell (Out), NT Kyle Williams (IR), LB Sean Lee, RB Felix Jones, P Mat McBriar, WR Miles Austin (Out), CB Mike Jenkins (Out)

Keys to the Game
  • Fred Jackson versus Dallas Cowboys’ run defense
  • How will the Bills respond after losing a home game to the New York Jets?
  • Will an injury to Miles Austin hurt the Cowboys’ offense?
  • Will Tony Romo avoid turnovers against the NFL’s second-ranked defense in interceptions and the NFL’s fourth-ranked team in turnover ratio?
  • The Cowboys are 0-2 against AFC East teams. The Bills are 2-1 against NFC East teams.
  • How much will injuries to Mat McBriar and Rian Lindell play into this?

Summary
The Buffalo Bills perform much better when they’re playing the underdog role. The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS when they’re underdogs while they’re 1-3 as favorites. The Dallas Cowboys have their own trends ATS: they’re 1-3 at home ATS and they’re 1-3-1 as the favorite.

I’m 2-6 with picking games that feature the Bills. Therefore, I’m not even going to try to mislead anyone with any evaluation about who will win. I’m just going to go with these trends and take the Bills in an upset at Big D.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills (+5)
Straight: Buffalo Bills 24, Dallas Cowboys 21

Stat sources:

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