Wednesday, October 26, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread (2011): Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (Week 8, 2011-12)

The Houston Texans are coming off a 41-7 victory over the Tennessee Titans. The Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off one of the NFL’s biggest upsets in the 2011-12 season after they defeated the Baltimore Ravens 12-7. The Jaguars are usually a tough opponent for AFC South teams in divisional games.

The early spread on this game is Texans (-10.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of October 26, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-2
Houston Texans 4-3

Key Injuries
S Danieal Manning (Out), G Antoine Caldwell, FB James Casey (Out), T Eben Britton

Keys to the Game
  • Andre Johnson is expected to return for the Texans
  • The Jaguars are coming off a Monday Night Football game
  • Can the Texans contain Maurice Jones-Drew?
  • Can the Jaguars contain Arian Foster?
  • Do the Jaguars have enough offensive firepower to play with the Texans?
  • Which team will create turnovers?

Summary
The Jaguars have covered the spread in their past two games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. They have a pesky defense that usually won’t allow many points. They have a respectable run defense that ranks within the NFL’s top-ten. They’re getting a bit healthier than they were at the start of the year.

I feel like this could be a better game than people would anticipate. The Jaguars normally play their AFC South rivals very tough. The Texans shouldn’t have as much success with running against the Jaguars. The problem is that I don’t have much faith in that Jaguars offense or Blaine Gabbert. I feel like they’re due a touchdown this week. However, they’ll need more than one touchdown to beat the Texans.

I’ll go with Texans in a close game.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5)
Straight: Houston Texans 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Stat sources:

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