Tuesday, October 11, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (Week 6, 2011-12)


The Indianapolis Colts have one final chance to turn their season around after a 0-5 start. The Cincinnati Bengals are suprirsing folks with their 3-2 start. How are these teams winning and losing? One prevails in the fourth quarter. The other team dies.

The early spread on this game is Bengals (-7). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for when betting. All lines from Y! Sports and Injury Reports from CBS Sports as of October 11, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

Key Injuries
QB Peyton Manning (Out), OT Anthony Castonzo, QB Kerry Collins, G Ryan Diem, RB Joseph Addai, DB Jerraud Powers, DT Eric Foster (IR), CB Kelly Jennings, CB Nate Clements, RB Cedric Benson (Possible Suspension)

Keys to the Game
  • Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon vs. Bengals’ depleted secondary
  • Can the Colts overcome a wide rash of injuries?
  • Can the Bengals keep winning close games with a rookie QB?
  • Can the Colts contain A.J. Green?
  • How well can the Bengals contain Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis?
  • Can the Colts keep losing in the fourth quarter?
  • Curtis Painter or Kerry Collins?
  • Can the Bengals No. 1 Defense smother the Colts?

Summary
The Bengals have won all three games in the fourth quarter via comebacks from Andrew Dalton. The Colts have lost all four games in the fourth quarter by allowing comebacks from their opponents. That makes it hard to understand the big point spread here. Seems awful risky to give seven points in a game that should be close.

The Bengals have the NFL’s No. 1 defense. The Steelers already smothered Kerry Collins. Therefore, I don’t see any reason that the Bengals won’t do something similar to Painter. I do believe that Painter is the better quarterback though. Keep an eye out for Addai’s injury because his absence will make this even harder for the Colts to win.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts (+7)
Straight: Cincinnati Bengals 17, Indianapolis Colts 10

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