Tuesday, October 11, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (Week 6, 2011-12)

The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers are amongst the NFL’s most surprising teams. The 49ers are looking for their third road victory. The Lions are looking to remain undefeated.  

The early spread on this game is Lions (-4.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for when betting. All lines from Y! Sports and Injury Reports from CBS Sports as of October 11, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
Detroit Lions 3-2
San Francisco 49ers 3-2

Key Injuries
LB Justin Durant, S Erik Coleman, OT Jason Fox, WR Joshua Morgan, WR Braylon Edwards (Out)

Keys to the Game
  • The Lions are coming off a short week after a Monday Night football game.
  • Albeit a great front four, who will contain Calvin Johnson?
  • Who will contain Vernon Davis?
  • Which team will win the turnover battle?
  • How well can the 49ers contain the Lions’ pass rush?
Summary
While the 49ers have a talented front seven, my concern would be their ability to handle elite wide receivers. I don’t see anyone who can hold Calvin Johnson to under 100 yards. The Lions’ offensive line is playing too well to prevent Matthew Stafford from finding his favorite target. I believe Brandon Pettigrew could be another valuable weapon in this contest.

The 49ers give up plenty of passing yards on defense (23rd). However, they’re allowing the fourth-best opponent QB rating (75.4). Matt Forte had over 100 yards rushing against the Lions’ defense. Expect a similar style game plan from Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers because some of their top receivers are hurt and I’m not sure about letting Alex Smith making decisions against that fierce pass rush.

The Lions have often played close games during their nine-game winning streak. I believe this will be another victory within three-to-seven points. Just can’t see the 49ers winning three consecutive road contests.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: -San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)
Straight: Detroit Lions 20, San Francisco 49ers 17

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