Friday, October 28, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Week 8, 2011-12)


The Kansas City Chiefs have gone from “Sucking for Luck” to potentially being the AFC West’s top team in just one month. The San Diego Chargers are looking to redeem themselves after a disappointing performance against the New York Jets.

The early spread on this game is Chargers (-4). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of October 28, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week. Please note that ATS means “Against the spread.”

*MY* Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
San Diego Chargers 6-0
Kansas City Chiefs 3-3

Key Injuries
RB Michael Tolbert, LB Shaun Phillips, G Kris Dielman, WR Malcom Floyd, DE Luis Castillo, LB Larry English

Keys to the Game
  • Are the Chiefs underrated? Are the Chargers overrated?
  • How much will home-field advantage play in this contest?
  • Can the Chiefs score enough points against a Phillip Rivers-led offense?
  • Turnovers
  • Will the Chargers be fired up from their loss to the New York Jets?

Summary
I don’t think I’ve seen anyone pick the Chiefs over Chargers in this contest. My recommendation would be that one shouldn’t be too cocky with the Chargers; the Chiefs almost pulled the upset right before they went on their three-game winning streak that has included two road victories against a hapless Indianapolis Colts team and a quarterback-less Oakland Raiders club.

The Chiefs pulled off this upset on the Monday Night regular-season opener last season when San Diego came to town. Don’t expect the Chargers to sleep on the Chiefs; I’m just a big fan of picking the Chiefs whenever they have a halfway competitive team playing in Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS while the Chargers are 2-4 ATS. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS as an underdog. Personally, I’ve always felt like the Chargers were overrated. Don’t forget that the Chargers have had trouble against the Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, and Kansas City Chiefs when they started 0-3.

I definitely like the points. The Chiefs will probably need a defensive score or something extravagant to pull off the victory. Luckily for them, the Chargers are the kings of spotting their opponents seven points on turnovers and special-team gaffes.  

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs (+4)
Straight: - Kansas City Chiefs 23, San Diego Chargers 17

Stat sources:

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