Wednesday, October 19, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (Week 7, 2011-12)

The San Diego Chargers will be playing an early-bird game against the New York Jets on October 23, 2011. The Jets are looking to get over .500. The Chargers are looking for their first quality win of the season. Which team will get a leg up on the playoff race?

The early spread on this game is Chargers (-1). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of October 19, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
San Diego Chargers 5-0
New York Jets 4-2

Key Injuries
CB Donald Strickland, CB Antonio Cromartie, DL Ropati Pitoitua, TE Antonio Gates, DL Jacques Cesaire, DE Luis Castillo (Out), CB Marcus Gilchrist

Keys to the Game
  • The Chargers are playing a noon game on the East Coast. That would regularly be 10 AM for them. How much will that affect them?
  • The Chargers have had two weeks of rest and preparation.
  • How good are the Chargers? Their wins have come against the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings.
  • Can Joe McKnight make a difference against the Chargers’ special teams?
  • Which team will win the turnover battle? Can Mark Sanchez avoid foolish interceptions?
  • Can the Jets maintain possession of the football?
  • Can the Jets control the Chargers on third down?

It’s hard to say how good the Chargers are because they haven’t played anybody other than the New England Patriots (their only loss).

I’m not a believer of the Chargers under Norv Turner. They’re a talented team and look great on the stat sheet. One of those stats includes the fact that they’ve averaged over 35 minutes of time-of-possession. Of course, you consider there opponents and that’s not too surprising. Even the Patriots have a suspect defense. Also, the Chargers have converted on 56% of their third downs. Contrarily, the Jets have only converted 35% of their attempts.

However, they make stupid mistakes. While the Jets haven’t played that well, they’re still better than anyone that the Chargers have beaten. The Chargers have a (-5) turnover ratio in comparison to the Jets who have a (+3) ratio.

I’ll go with the Jets. I think a play from their defense or special teams will put them over the top along with the home-field advantage.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: New York Jets (+1)
Straight: New York Jets 27, San Diego Chargers 21

Stat sources:

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