Wednesday, October 12, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Week 6, 2011-12)

Where’s the swagger? The New York Jets find themselves in a must-win game with divisional foe Miami Dolphins. The Jets can’t afford to fall behind the Buffalo Bills or New England Patriots more than what they are. The Dolphins can’t afford to… win?

The early spread on this game is Jets (-7). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick’ em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and Injury Reports from CBS Sports as of October 11, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
New York Jets 3-2
Miami Dolphins 2-2

Key Injuries
QB Chad Henne (IR), RB Daniel Thomas, CB Vontae Davis, LB Bryan Thomas (IR), CB Donald Strickland

Keys to the Game
  • The Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare and rest for this contest.
  • The Jets are 2-0 at home. Their three-game losing streak was all on the road.
  • Will the Jets revert to a running offense?
  • Will the Jets avoid key giveaways (Looking at Mark Sanchez)
  • Do the Dolphins have enough offensive weapons for Matt Moore to succeed?
  • Will the Jets contain the running game?
  • How will the Jets’ offensive line hold up?

Summary
The Dolphins have played all their opponents into the fourth quarter and they always play the Jets tough. I wouldn’t take much into Chad Henne’s injury because he wasn’t playing at an elite level anyway. What I would keep an eye on is Daniel Thomas’s injury. They need his interior running to be involved against the Jets. Reggie Bush won’t cut it.

The Jets don’t have that swagger that they’ve had with Rex Ryan the past two seasons. They’re trying to run an aerial offense that doesn’t fit them because Sanchez can barely manage a regular-season game. The run defense is susceptible. They’re making far too many mistakes with penalties and giveaways.

One has to think that they’re going to recover though, right? I can’t see them bowing out to the Dolphins even after a bye week. The Dolphins pulled off this upset in 2010. The Dolphins won despite only completing five passes. Sanchez was 17/44 with a pick in that 10-6 loss.

Jets return to .500. 

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Miami Dolphins (+7)
Straight: New York Jets 20, Miami Dolphins 13

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