Tuesday, October 4, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Week 5, 2011-12)

The Kansas City Chiefs can basically kill their chances at Andrew Luck with another victory. The Indianapolis Colts can get one step closer to him. Will the Colts fall to 0-5 without Peyton Manning?

The early spread on this game is Colts (-2.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for when betting. All lines from Cooper's Pick and Injury Reports from CBS Sports as of October 4, 2011. Always keep yourself updated with injury lines because they’ll unexpectedly change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
Indianapolis Colts 3-1
Kansas City Chiefs 3-1

Key Injuries
DL Eric Foster (Out), QB Peyton Manning (Out), LB Ernie Sims, QB Kerry Collins, DB Jon McGraw

Keys to the Game
  • How well can the Chiefs contain Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis?
  • Kerry Collins or Curtis Painter?
  • Can the Colts create turnovers?
  • Can the Colts secure some passing touchdowns against a Chiefs’ secondary that’s allowed 10 passing touchdowns?

Summary
I’m looking at the Colts’ home schedule for the remainder of the season. They’re currently 0-2 with losses to the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. They still have home games against the Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans and Chiefs.

The Colts have a realistic chance of going 0-8 at Lucas Oil Stadium if they don’t win this game. They could easily start 1-9, possibly 0-10 before their Week 11 bye week without a win here. I just can’t see that happening. I also think that this is “Now-or-never” time for the Colts (unless they’re just going to tank for Luck now. I don’t believe in that).

The Chiefs were a sub .500 road team last season. They’re obviously going to perform worse with the players that they’ve lost during the opening weeks and preseason. The Colts do have a (+1) turnover ratio despite their 0-4 record. I feel like the Colts have the better chance of making that one “Big play.” Of course, they have to capitalize on that big play once they get it.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Straight:  - Indianapolis Colts 17, Kansas City Chiefs 13

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