Tuesday, October 11, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (Week 6, 2011-12)


The Houston Texans thought this could be their year when Peyton Manning went down with injury. Now they’re the team who has to overcome their own injuries. Can they avoid going .500 when they face a well-rest Baltimore Ravens team on the road?

The early spread on this game is Ravens (-7.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick’ em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and Injury Reports from CBS Sports as of October 11, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
Houston Texans 2-3
Baltimore Ravens 1-3

Key Injuries
WR Andre Johnson (Doubtful), LB Mario Williams (IR), QB Matt Schaub, CB Chris Carr, S Tom Zbikowski

Keys to the Game
  • The Ravens have had two weeks to rest and prepare for this contest
  • Two of the Texans’ three victories come against teams with a combined 0-9 record.
  • How much do injuries hurt the Texans here?
  • Same old Texans?
  • Could the Texans’ passing offense exploit the Ravens’ secondary?
  • How will the Texans’ defense adjust without Mario Williams?
  •  Will the Ravens continue to create turnovers?

Summary
The Texans could use Andre Johnson in this game. The Ravens have a good defense. However, I’ve always felt like their secondary is vulnerable to spread passing offenses like the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers. The Texans could’ve attacked this more effectively with Johnson.

I feel like the Texans can certainly keep it within 3-10 points as long as they protect the football. Two of the Ravens three victories occurred because of a plethora of turnovers from Ben Roethlisberger and Mark Sanchez. Turnovers will be key in this matchup.

I expect a close game but must go with the Ravens because they’ve had an extra week off and don’t have to contain Andre Johnson. I’d still go with the Ravens if Johnson plays because he’s probably going to be gimpy on a rushed hamstring.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Houston Texans (+7.5)
Straight: -Baltimore Ravens 27, Houston Texans 24

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