Wednesday, October 19, 2011

jJZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (Week 7, 2011-12)


The Denver Broncos will feel right at home as Tim Tebow makes his return to the Sunshine State. The Miami Dolphins could be playing to save Tony Sparano’s job. They could also play for Andrew Luck. Do you trust the Dolphins?

The early spread on this game is PICK’ EM. Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for in pick ’em leagues. All lines from Y! Sports and injury reports from CBS Sports as of October 19, 2011. Always update yourselves with injury lines because they’ll change throughout the week.

Current Personal Picks Record (Straights Only)
Denver Broncos 4-1
Miami Dolphins 3-2

Key Injuries
WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Eddie Royal, S Brian Dawkins, S Chris Clemons, QB Chad Henne (IR)

Keys to the Game
  • The Broncos have had two weeks of preparation
  • Tim Tebow will make his first NFL start
  • The Miami Dolphins have won one home game since late in the 2009-10 season
  • Which quarterback can avoid turnovers?
  • How much does the return of Champ Bailey help?
  • Can the Dolphins protect Matt Moore from Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil?
  • Do-or-die for Tony Sparano?

Summary
The Dolphins have recently been horrible at home. They were 1-7 while playing in Miami last season. They haven’t fared any better in 2011-12.

Tebow won’t have much to work with. The Broncos traded Brandon Lloyd to the St. Louis Rams. They still could be without their No. 2 and No. 3 receivers. They’ve also played the entire season without TE Julius Thomas. While they’ve had two weeks of preparation, this will be a cross-country trip for a day game. That means that they’d be playing at 11 A.M. Mountain Time.

I don’t have any faith in the Dolphins to win at home. They’ll need to be pretty opportunistic to win any games this season. I just don’t see Tebow losing his first NFL start. His presence should give the Broncos a nifty spark. I also think that Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil can create pressure on what’s been one of the NFL’s weaker offensive lines.

Final Predictions:
Against the Spread: Denver Broncos
Straight: Denver Broncos 17, Miami Dolphins 13

Stat sources:

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