Tuesday, September 20, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Week 3, 2011-2012)

The Buffalo Bills are the NFL's biggest surprise after jumping out to a 2-0 start over two AFC West teams. Are the Bills for real? They'll be tested by the New England Patriots and their high-powered offense.

The early spread on this game is Patriots (-9). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for when betting. All lines from Cooper's Pick and Injury Reports from covers.com as of September 20, 2011. Always keep yourself updated with injury lines because they’ll unexpectedly change throughout the week.
#1: Injuries
The Bills could be without NT Torrell Troup, WR Roscoe Parrish, OL Kraig Urbik and LB Arthur Moats. Nothing too significant. Stevie Johnson should be ready for this game. 
The Patriots are getting hit hard with injuries. LB Gary Guton, DL Mike Wright, TE Aaron Hernandez, C Dan Koppen, and RB Kevin Faulk are just a few of the marquee names who are hurting for New England.

#2: Recent History
The New England Patriots have won 15 consecutive games against the Buffalo Bills dating back to 2003.

#3: Scoring Power
The Bills have scored 79 points in their first two games. The Patriots have scored 73 points during that span. Both defenses have appeared vulnerable against respectable competition (The Kansas City Chiefs aren't currently respectable).

#4: Discipline
The Bills have a +3 turnover ratio and have only committed 8 penalties on the season. That's tied for the third fewest. The Patriots have a +4 turnover ratio and have committed 15 penalties.

Final Predictions:
Can't pick against a team that's won 15 consecutive games. I do think that (+9) is very risky. They played the Patriots within 8 points at Gillette Stadium last season. I'd recommend staying away from this spread line.

Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills (+9)
Straight: New England Patriots 34, Buffalo Bills 27

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