Tuesday, September 27, 2011

JZN NFL Predictions vs. Spread: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (Week 4, 2011-12)

The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals is a rematch of the offensive extravaganza that took place in November of 2010. The Bills pulled off the 49-31 victory. The Bengals don’t have Jonathan Joseph or Carson Palmer now. Do they have a chance?

The early spread on this game is Bills (-3). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for when betting. All lines from Cooper's Pick and Injury Reports from covers.com as of September 27, 2011. Always keep yourself updated with injury lines because they’ll unexpectedly change throughout the week.

#0: Current Record (Straights Only)
Buffalo Bills 1-2
Cincinnati Bengals 1-2

#1: Injuries
The biggest news here could be a suspension for Cedric Benson. He could receive a three-game suspension for his July arrest. That would be devasting to the Bengals’ changes of winning this game. They have a few more players who haven’t played since the preseason or last year. Robert Geathers is questionable with a shoulder injury.

The Bills have a few minor injuries. The Bills could be shallow at linebacker as Kirk Morrison and Chris White are questionable. CB Aaron Williams is also recovering from a chest injury and sounds like he won’t play. CB Terrence McGee and OL Kraig Urbik are definitely out.

#2: Bills vs. Bengals: 2010 matchup
The Bills earned their second victory of the 2010-11 season with a 49-31 victory over the Bengals. After falling behind 31-14 at halftime, the Bills ended the game with 35 unanswered points in the second half.

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns while Cedric Benson had 124 yards on 25 carries. Bills’ RB Fred Jackson also had 116 yards on 21 carries. WR Stevie Johnson had 137 yards on eight receptions.

The Bengals could miss Jonathan Joseph. Joseph signed with the Houston Texans this past off-season. He had two interception returns and a touchdown in the last meeting. He was the only bright spot for a defense that surrendered 49 points to a team that was 1-8 at the time.

#3 Turnover Ratio
The Bills can create turnovers. They forced Tom Brady into four interceptions in their Week 3 victory. Both teams are in the positive with turnover ratio. The Bills’ +5 mark is one below the league leaders.

#4 Offense vs. Defense
This game features the NFL’s No. 3 offense and the NFL’s No. 3 defense. The Bills’ offense is averaging 431 yards per game while the Bengals’ defense is giving up less than 280 yards.

That could be deceiving. The Bengals have played the Cleveland Browns (Colt McCoy), Denver Broncos (Kyle Orton) and the San Francisco 49ers (Alex Smith). This should be a harder test. The Bills have also faced vulnerable defenses as they’ve played the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots.

#5 Slow starts
The Bills have trailed 21-3 and 21-0 in their previous two games. They needed a remarkable comeback during both victories. That trend mustn’t continue if they’re going to win the AFC East. Teams will take advantage of that.
 
Final Predictions:
The Bills have too much offensive firepower for the Bengals to match with rookie Andrew Dalton. This will be a lower scoring game on both ends in 2011. The Bills will win though.

Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills (-3)
Straight: Buffalo Bills 24, Cincinnati Bengals 10

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